- The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily.
- The foreign market originated in 1973 and more than three decades later, the forex market has been expanding and developing into the robust worldwide market it is today. Even so, currency or money has always been in our society, in one form or another, since the ancient time of the Pharaohs.
- Currently, all major currencies move independently from the other currencies implementing the services of forex dealers. Because there are no limitations on currency dealers and investors who want to trade currencies in an open and free foreign exchange market, there has been an inflow of speculation by brokerage houses, independent broker dealers, future trading brokers, hedge funds, banks as well as individuals.
- The majority of forex trading comes from banks, investment companies and brokerages.
- The forex market is driven by the enormous scope for profit potential among the currency dealers, along with the supply and demand. The free floating system is more practical for today’s forex market which undergoes a change in the currency rate approximately every 4.8 seconds.
International Expansion is the place to go for anyone contemplating or involved in international business.
Monday, December 13, 2010
International expansion involves foreign exchange
International business trends
Global PMI Scorecard: Faster Rate Of Expansion
Manufacturing PMIs
I remarked in a post on Friday that the November manufacturing PMIs came in much stronger than the market and I expected. Only Spain, Italy and Australia reported weaker growth, with the U.S. marginally lower. The manufacturing sectors in most countries except Australia, Japan and Greece continue to expand. Brazil is on the brink of expanding again, whereas Spain finds itself on the edge of contraction.
Country | Manufacturing PMI | Trend | |
| Nov-10 | Oct-10 | ||
| U.S.***** | 56.6 | 56.9 | Little slower, expanding |
| Eurozone* | 55.3 | 54.6 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany* | 58.1 | 56.6 | Robust |
| France* | 57.9 | 55.2 | Robust |
| Netherlands* | 56.5 | 55.4 | Stronger, expanding |
| Greece* | 43.9 | 43.6 | Contraction moderating |
| Italy* | 52.0 | 53.0 | Slower, expanding |
| Spain* | 50.0 | 51.2 | Slower, contraction looming |
| Ireland* | 51.2 | 50.9 | Higher, expanding |
| U.K.* | 58.0 | 54.9 | Robust |
| Japan* | 47.3 | 47.2 | Little change, contracting |
| Australia* | 47.6 | 49.4 | Contraction deepening |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil* | 49.9 | 49.5 | Contraction moderating |
| China** | 55.2 | 54.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Czech* | 57.3 | 57.2 | Robust |
| Poland* | 55.9 | 55.6 | Stronger, expanding |
| Turkey* | 56.4 | 54.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| India* | 58.4 | 57.2 | Robust |
| Russia* | 51.1 | 51.8 | Slower, expanding slowly |
| RSA*** | 52.9 | 49.8 | Stronger, expanding again |
| Taiwan* | 51.7 | 48.6 | Stronger, expanding again |
| JP Morgan Global**** | 54.0 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.
Non-manufacturing/services PMIs
The non-manufacturing/services PMIs released for November indicated that the global expansion in the global services or non-manufacturing sector gained traction, with the JP Morgan Global Services PMI inching up to 54.8 from 54.6 in October. The services sector in the Eurozone was particularly strong, with Germany leading from the front as the PMI in the latter ratcheted up to a broad-based robust 59.2 from 56.0 in October. Italy also saw an improvement, with the PMI improving to 54.4 from a near neutral 50.9 in October as a result of an increase in foreign demand. Spain and Ireland continue to lag the rest of the Eurozone due to the increased uncertainty regarding the outcome of the present crisis and austerity measures. Growth in the non-manufacturing sector in the U.S. accelerated in November, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI improving to 55.0 from 54.3 in October.
The services sector in Australia again contracted in November as the PMI plummeted 4.5 points to 46.2. India was the bright spark in Asia as a strong rise in new business orders pushed the services PMI to 61.3 from an already robust 58.4 in October. I already covered the slump in China’s CFLP non-manufacturing PMI in a previous blog where I attributed the drop from 60.5 to 53.2 to seasonal factors. The business environment in Japan’s services sectors improved to a near neutral 49.5 from contracting in October as a result of growth in new business.
Country | Non-manufacturing/
Services PMI | ||
| November 2010 | October 2010 | Trend | |
| United States | 55.0 | 54.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| Eurozone | 55.4 | 53.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany | 59.2 | 56.0 | Robust |
| France | 55.0 | 54.8 | Stronger, expanding |
| Italy | 54.4 | 51.0 | Stronger, expanding |
| Spain | 48.3 | 46.5 | Contraction moderating |
| Ireland | 50.8 | 50.9 | Unchanged, expanding slowly |
| U.K. | 53.0 | 53.2 | Marginally softer, expanding |
| Australia | 46.2 | 50.7 | Plummeted into contraction |
| Japan | 49.5 | 47.2 | Contraction moderating |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil | 52.1 | 51.8 | Higher, expanding |
| China* | 53.2 | 60.5 | Growth slowed significantly |
| India | 61.3 | 58.4 | Robust |
| Russia | 54.1 | 54.7 | Moderately slower, expanding |
| JP Morgan Global Services | 54.8 | 54.6 | Slightly higher, expanding |
Sources: Markit; CFLP*; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.
GDP-weighted/composite PMIs
On a GDP-weighted/composite basis where the manufacturing and non-manufacturing/services are both taken into account, the growth in global economic activity continues to expand but at a marginally slower rate, taking the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI Index to 54.6 from 54.8 in October.
| GDP-weighted/ Composite PMI | Trend | ||
| Country | Nov-10 | Oct-10 | |
| U.S. | 55.4 | 54.9 | Stronger, expanding |
| Eurozone | 55.4 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany | 59.0 | 56.0 | Robust |
| U.K. | 54.4 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Japan | 48.7 | 47.2 | Contraction moderating |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil | 51.5 | 50.8 | Moderately stronger, expanding |
| China* | 54.0 | 58.2 | Slowing, expanding |
| JPMorgan Global | 54.6 | 54.8 | Marginally slower, expanding |
Sources: Markit; CFLP*; Li & Fung*; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.
Sources: Markit; CFLP*; Li & Fung*; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.
Conclusion
U.S. economy: GDP growth holding up
My GDP-weighted ISM PMI for the U.S. leads U.S. real GDP growth by a quarter. At this stage it indicates that the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter is running at a rate of approximately 2.5% on a year-ago basis but that the growth in the first quarter of next year could improve.
Sources: ISM; FRED; Plexus Asset Management.
Eurozone: GDP growth cycle to peak in the current quarter?
The GDP-weighted PMI for the Eurozone gives me insight into where the Eurozone economy is heading. It is currently suggesting that the economy is maintaining growth of approximately 2% on a year-ago basis. Year-on-year growth in the GDP is likely to moderate in the first quarter of next year.
Sources: Markit (various internet sources); I-Net; Plexus Asset Management.
China’s GDP-weighted PMI: down as expected, but expect a major rebound in December
My calculated GDP-weighted PMI for China was in line with my expectations based on the apparent seasonal trend. I therefore expect a significant seasonal rebound in December. What is evident, though, is that the expansion is on par with that of last year and that there is no indication yet of a train smash ahead as happened in 2008.
Sources: CFLP; Plexus Asset Management.
From a forecasting point of view the CFLP manufacturing PMI gives a better picture of underlying GDP growth due to lower seasonality.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Li & Fung; Plexus Asset Management.
Japan: a mixed picture
A significant diversion is shaping up between Japan’s GDP growth and the manufacturing PMI. If the trend in the manufacturing PMI is likely to shape the future, then I am afraid Japan’s economy may soon find itself in a double-dip recession.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Markit; Plexus Asset Management.
U.K. economy: the ship has steadied for now
The U.K.’s year-on-year GDP growth has finally caught up with my calculated GDP-weighted PMI (manufacturing and services combined). The composite PMI currently indicates that growth in the fourth quarter has slowed somewhat from the third quarter’s 2.8% but should accelerate in the first quarter of next year.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Markit; Plexus Asset Management.
The manufacturing and non-manufacturing/services PMI numbers for November were better than I expected and are likely to hold up in December.
In the longer run I remain very skeptical regarding the outlook for the global economy. There are just too many black swans out there! Leading indicators in China have fallen in a heap. Will the second round of quantitative easing in the U.S. be able to turn the house market? What about the potential contagion of the debt crisis in the Eurozone?
International business online
International expansion includes online sales and other channels of distribution. Here is some useful points and examples to note when engaging in international ecommence:
Here's how companies such as MotoSport and Zazzle are tackling global e-commerce.
When MotoSport made its first international sale, things didn't go smoothly. The Portland, Oregon-based online retailer of motorcycle parts and accessories had received a $99 order from Canada. It seemed like a no-brainer to fill it.
But after the delivery truck arrived at the customer's house, the driver immediately demanded $100 worth of unpaid Canadian taxes and tariffs. "It was more than what the guy paid for the item," says Jarrod Rogers, MotoSport's director of marketing operations. "Of course, he didn't want it." It turned out that the item was subject to a particularly high tax, of which the company had been unaware.
As MotoSport quickly discovered, global e-commerce has its challenges. But international markets are becoming too big to ignore. Though the U.S. accounts for about $90 billion of the $309 billion global e-commerce market, other countries are zooming ahead on some key measures, says Daniel Latev, who studies global Internet retailing at market research firm Euromonitor International. In annual per capita online spending, the U.S. ranks third ($355 per person), behind the U.K. ($578) and Denmark ($466). And when it comes to e-commerce growth, China, Brazil, and Mexico are all expecting to see increases of up to 30 percent a year for the next five years, excluding inflation. The U.S. e-commerce market, by comparison, grew 6 percent in 2009. "There is a lot of opportunity in foreign markets," says Latev.
Cashing in on that opportunity wasn't easy for MotoSport. The company discovered that its products were subject to an encyclopedia's worth of government fees and regulations, all of which varied depending on the type of product, what country it was going to, and where it had been made. That was bad news for a retailer with more than 100,000 products from about 400 suppliers worldwide.
So MotoSport turned to FiftyOne Global Ecommerce, a company that handles international shipping and logistics and also makes sure online customers see prices displayed in their local currency. For a $20,000 setup fee, FiftyOne linked MotoSport's sizable inventory to FiftyOne's database of country-specific taxes and updated MotoSport's website with pricing information for various regions.
MotoSport now sells online to 84 countries. When an order comes in from overseas, MotoSport ships the products to one of FiftyOne's warehouses in Ohio and New Jersey. FiftyOne takes care of the rest and pockets a percentage of the sale. Rogers says, at this point, his company has not made a concerted effort to draw in international customers -- it hasn't translated its foreign websites into local languages, for example. Even so, Rogers says MotoSport views international sales as one of the biggest sources of potential growth.
One company that has worked hard to reach foreign customers is Zazzle, a Redwood City, California-based business that specializes in customized T-shirts, mugs, and other sundries. Like MotoSport, Zazzle has faced some challenges with tariffs and government fees, but its main focus has been on tailoring its online shopping experience to each country, says Michael Karns, the company's head of international development.
So far, Zazzle has created standalone websites for 15 countries and offers shipping to another 70 or so. Karns keeps a close eye on Zazzle's Web traffic to determine which markets to target next. When Zazzle began its international push in 2008, it devoted most of its resources to developing an Internet platform that could easily be reconfigured to match the tastes of a local audience. Then, it invested in translating each site, changing its Frequently Asked Questions sections to reflect specific concerns in each country, hiring multilingual customer support teams, and analyzing customer preferences in each region. Germans, for example, buy a lot of custom skateboards, while Japanese customers prefer Zazzle's custom sneakers.
Another critical area to figure out is logistics -- actually getting a product from Point A to Point B. That's easy for a company like HoMedics, which has long worked with overseas distributors. Before it began selling online, the 25-year-old Commerce Township, Michigan, company, which sells personal wellness items like back massagers and sound machines through large retailers such as Target and Bed Bath & Beyond, already had a global distribution network. HoMedics had to integrate its e-commerce software with the disparate order-fulfillment computer systems at each of its international outposts. After that, shipping was a cinch, says Phil Jacokes, e-commerce manager for HoMedics.
But even if you don't have overseas distributors, you can still sell internationally, saysMichael DeSimone, CEO of FiftyOne. He says it's a mistake to assume that customers overseas wouldn't be willing to pay higher shipping costs. DeSimone points to an example from his family. His sister-in-law, who lives in Australia, can't find 1,000-thread-count sheets for a decent price anywhere nearby. So she buys the sheets online from American retailers and pays what might seem like exorbitant shipping rates. "But even with that high shipping cost, she's paying half of what she would anywhere in Australia," DeSimone says.
Plus, he says, after an international order comes in, companies often receive multiple orders from people who live in the same town. "People start telling their friends and neighbors where they can finally get 1,000-thread-count sheets," he says. "There's a viral marketing aspect to it."
That's encouraging for businesses like MotoSport that aren't yet marketing to other countries. "If we ever decide to promote MotoSport in local markets," says Rogers, "we expect that it will only grow from here."
International staffing and recruiting
This was the warning from James Caan, chief executive of mid-market private equity firm Hamilton Bradshaw.
From his 25 years of experience in the recruitment sector, Caan offered his advice to senior recruiters at an evening event this week in London hosted by HSBC.
Recruiters should look at what market share they hold in the UK before thinking about expanding abroad. “What makes you think if you can’t do business in Chiswick [that] you can do it in Russia?” Caan argued.
In the UK, he went on to say, solving a business problem may take “two or three phone calls” while elsewhere in the world, resolving the same issue could “cost you tenfold”.
Caan said he didn’t want to dissuade recruiters who were convinced international expansion was the right next step for their businesses “but do it with caution”.
International expansion at Volkwagen
International expansion continues at Dollar Thrifty
Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group has announced the continuation of their domestic and international expansion. On Tuesday, the car hire firm announced that it has opened 16 new franchise locations in the US since the beginning of July, which brings its total of newly opened franchises in the US this year to 31. The company has also added 5 master licensees to their international operations.
Dollar Thrifty’s franchise expansion includes the re-franchising of 2 former corporate locations that are successfully reentering the market as Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent A Car offices inSpringfield, Missouri and Bentonville, Arkansas. The domestic growth also includes more Dollar openings in Marquette, Michigan; Staten Island, New York; and Wilmington, North Carolina; while a Thrifty location has opened in Danvers, Massachusetts. There are also several combined locations that provide retail used car sales and serve local rental needs. The Dollar and Thrifty brands have over 1,550 corporate and franchise locations in 81 countries.
Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group president and chief executive Scott Thompson says that they are delighted with how many new franchise locations they have opened in the US and abroad. Domestic and international franchise growth is key to increasing the brands’ visibility around the globe, he explained. Through their new franchise partners, he added, they are able to provide great value in many new markets to their expanding customer base.
Meanwhile, the company is in talks with Avis Budget Group, in which they will be taken over by the larger car hire firm. It’s been reported that Avis Budget is having to raise funds and unload some of its assets to make the merger more regulator-friendly.
International expansion at Mulberry's
Sales of its leather bags, from the Alexa to the Bayswater and the Paddington, soared by 38% to £44.7m in the six months to September 30 while pre-tax profits grew to £4.7m. The popularity of its product was closely linked to strong demand from Asia, where sales more than doubled.
And in a daring move for the retail industry, the firm said it had no plans to discount before Christmas. But does its refusal to discount point to self-confidence in its products?
The Alexa, which was launched in January, was named in honour of TV presenter Alexa Chung. Chief executive. Her endorsement has helped Mulberry along the way to becoming a major international fashion brand to rival Louis Vuitton or Chanel.